Russian automobile and LCV markets may shrink in 2013

Russian automobile and LCV markets may shrink in 2013

Vedomosti – Russian automobile and LCV markets had grown by 39%, reaching 2.65 million vehicles the previous year, according to AEB data. AEB predicts a 9.4% growth rate for the year 2012. However, the experts are of the opinion that the situation might change during the course of the following year.

Oleg Datskiv of Auto-dealer.ru has stated that expecting the market to keep its 2012 levels would be wishful thinking and added that a 5% decline is a more realistic scenario. Sergei Udalov from Avtostat, on the other hand, has predicted a 3% decline and linked the current drop in sales with the saturation in consumer demand.

The manufacturers are more optimistic. For instance, a representative from Ford Sollers has admitted that the tempo of sales might slow down, however disagreed with the prediction that the sales figures of 2013 will remain below 2012 values. The representative has added that as a company, they are aiming to increase their market share in 2013, with the help of the growing Crossover and LCV segments.

AvtoVAZ executives also think that the growth will come to a halt, however this will happen in 2014, rather than in 2013. According to the prediction of AvtoVAZ, the Russian automobile market will grow by 11% the following year, reaching 3 million vehicles and keep this growth rate until the year 2016. The Russian manufacturer estimates the market to reach 3.4 million and 3.6 million vehicles by 2017 and 2020 respectively.

Both Udalov and Datskiv are of the opinion that the only way for the Russian automobile market to maintain its current level in future is keeping up with the models with high sales potentials. In this context, it should be remembered that Nissan Almera -manufactured in AvtoVAZ- and Chevrolet Cobalt -assembled in Uzbekistan- will be put in the market in 2013. In addition to this, the production of Renault models will start in AvtoVAZ, as from the second half of the year.

Oleg Datskiv has drawn attention to the 600,000-1,500,000 rubles price segment, where the competition and the saturation are at their highest, as potentially the most problematic area of the year 2013. According to Datskiv, there’s a wider perspective in budget-friendly and luxury segments. Finally, Datskiv predicts that the total magnitude of the market will fluctuate between 2.7-3.5 million during the course of the next five years.

On the other hand, according to an executive from GAZ Group, the volume of the LCV market will more or less remain in its 2012 level in 2013. The group is aiming to increase its market share to 50% for the next year, following this year’s LCV sales figure of 175,000 vehicles.