Autostat: “Russian automobile market may shrink by 55% in 2015”

Autostat: “Russian automobile market may shrink by 55% in 2015”

Vedomosti – The Autostat representative, who spoke at the “Russian Automobile Market: Results and Predictions 2015” conference, predicts the annual automobile sales figure for 2015 -excluding the light commercial vehicles- as 1.35 million vehicles. This is equivalent to a 42% year-on-year decline.

According to the agency’s optimistic scenario, the sales will shrink by 30% (1.64 million automobiles). The pessimistic scenario, on the other hand, expects a 55% shrinkage (1.06 million automobiles).

Autostat data show the automobile sales figure for 2014 as 2.49 million (-10.3%).

The representative also expects a structural change in the market this year. Accordingly, the average vehicle disposal period, previously calculated as 4.5 years, will extend. In addition, the consumer preference will shift to lower classes of vehicles.

The Russian Association of Automobile Dealers (ROAD) representative, who took the floor at the same conference, has speculated that 2015 will be the toughest year in the history of Russian automotive. As predicted by the ROAD member, the second hand market and the new automobile market will shrink by 28% (4.42 million) and 41% (1.38 million), respectively. ROAD expects a further shrinkage of 200,000 vehicles, unless the Ministry of Industry and Commerce puts a new induced car credit programme into action.

As one may remember, AEB predicted the market for 2015 as 1.89 million vehicles, albeit two months ago (-24%). PwC’s -now a month old- market prediction is a one third shrinkage, on the other hand.